A new report from a leading economic thinktank has issued a stark warning - cutting net migration to zero could cause the UK's economy to shrink by 3.6% over the long-term. The findings challenge the narrative that reducing immigration is an easy fix for the country's economic woes.

The analysis, conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), modeled the impact of the UK government's target to reduce net migration to the "tens of thousands." What this really means is that if the UK were to achieve its long-standing goal of drastically cutting immigration, the consequences could be disastrous for economic growth.

A Shrinking Workforce Spells Trouble

The bigger picture here is that a reduction in net migration would significantly shrink the size of the UK's working-age population over time. As government adviser Brian Bell recently warned, net migration could rise to 300,000 per year by the end of the decade - far above the "tens of thousands" target.

And according to the NIESR report, if net migration were to fall to zero, the UK's GDP would be 3.6% lower by 2060 compared to a baseline scenario with continued migration. This translates to a loss of around £100 billion in economic output.

A Demographic Time Bomb

The implications go beyond just economic growth. Cutting immigration would also exacerbate the UK's demographic challenges, such as an aging population and a shrinking workforce to support retirees. As the Office for Budget Responsibility has warned, net migration is crucial for offsetting the fiscal costs of an aging society.

In short, the experts are clear - severely restricting immigration is not the panacea that some politicians might suggest. Rather, it risks triggering a demographic time bomb that could seriously undermine the UK's long-term economic prospects. Policymakers would be wise to heed these warnings and rethink their approach to migration.